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Email me at btimmermann@gmail.com

NCAA Tournament Contest Champion

Andrew Shimmin

2008 contest

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The stuff I keep track of
2008 Conference Standings FINAL
National League
Rank Team W L PCT Division
1 Chicago Cubs 97 64 .602 C1
2 Philadelphia 92 70 .568 E1
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 84 78 .519 W1
4 Milwaukee 90 72 .556 C2
5 New York Mets 89 73 .549 E2
6 Houston 86 75 .534 C3
7 St. Louis 86 76 .531 C4
8 Florida 84 77 .522 E3
9 Arizona 82 80 .506 W2
10T Colorado 74 88 .457 W3
10T Cincinnati 74 88 .457 C5
12T Atlanta 72 90 .444 E4
12T San Francisco 72 90 .444 W4
14 Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 C6
15 San Diego 63 99 .389 W5
16 Washington 59 102 .366 E5
American League
Rank Team W L PCT Division
1 Los Angeles Angels 100 62 .617 W1
2 Tampa Bay 97 65 .599 E1
3 Chicago White Sox 89 74 .546 C1
4 Boston 95 67 .586 E2
5 New York Yankees 89 73 .549 E3
6 Minnesota 88 75 .540 C2
7 Toronto 86 76 .531 E4
8 Cleveland 81 81 .500 C3
9 Texas 79 83 .488 W2
10 Oakland 75 86 .466 W3
11 Kansas City 75 87 .463 C4
12 Detroit 74 88 .457 C5
13 Baltimore 68 93 .422 E5
14 Seattle 61 101 .377 W4
Random Game Callbacks

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So where is that book?

Personal favorites that I wrote
The Metro Area Battles

New York
WLGB
Yankees8973
Mets8973

Baltimore/DC
WLGB
X - Orioles6893
Nationals591029

Chicago
WLGB
X - Cubs9764
White Sox89749

LA/Orange County
WLGB
X - Angels10062
Dodgers847816

SF/Oakland
WLGB
X - Athletics7685
Giants72904.5

X - Clinched

So long and thanks for playing this year

1. Washington (8/31)
2. Seattle (9/1)
3. Pittsburgh (9/6) *
3. San Diego (9/6) *
5. Baltimore (9/8)
6. Oakland (9/8)
7. Atlanta (9/9)
8. Kansas City (9/9)
9. Cincinnati (9/10)
10. Texas (9/13)
11. Detroit (9/15)
12. San Francisco (9/17)
13. Colorado (9/18)
14. Cleveland (9/19)
15. Toronto (9/21)
16. New York Yankees (9/23)
17. St. Louis (9/23)
18. Florida (9/23)
19. Arizona (9/25)
20. Houston (9/26)
21. New York Mets (9/28)
22. Minnesota (9/30)
23. Chicago Cubs (10/4)
24. Milwaukee (10/5)
25. Chicago White Sox (10/6)
26. Los Angeles Angels (10/6)
27. Los Angeles Dodgers (10/15)
28. Boston (10/19)
29. Tampa Bay (10/29)

* - Teams eliminated at same time

The last batter to reach on catcher's interference was ...

Seth McClung of Milwaukee by Koyie Hill of the Cubs on September 26, 2008.

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Orange alert - Player needs double for cycle
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Hail to the Clutchiest
2008-06-28 13:54
by Bob Timmermann
After sitting through a presentation by Dick Cramer and Pete Palmer which reinforced their belief that there is no such thing as a clutch hitter.

And the "clutchiest" player from 1957-2007 according to their calculations was this guy.

Comments
2008-06-28 14:29:58
1.   mehmattski
His .291/.363/.377 line with runners in scoring position is impressive from a player who hit .262/.332/.342 overall.

But he only hit .239/.320/.292 in "late and close"!

Did they look at RBI/RBI Opps? Cause he looks pretty average in that regard too.

2008-06-28 14:34:11
2.   Bob Timmermann
They used linear weights by game situation.
2008-06-28 15:15:56
3.   Greg Brock
Bob, will all the data be available online?
2008-06-28 16:37:34
4.   Bob Timmermann
I assume somewhere at sometime.

But the data isn't all that interesting to Cramer and Palmer because they don't believe clutch hitting exists.

2008-06-30 13:25:58
5.   Tom Meagher
Well, I can't speak for Palmer and Cramer's data, but we have Fangraphs which uses Tangotiger's WPA framework. Fletcher's batting wins are:

Simple linear weights (Palmer, via bb-ref): -10.3
Context-neutral WPA (WPA/LI, http://tinyurl.com/6hmoym): -6.96
Run-expectancy wins (base-out linear weights): -2.05
WPA: 1.58

So it can be argued that he was 12 wins better than his simple lwts would suggest, or one win per 500 PA.

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