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Email me at btimmermann@gmail.com

NCAA Tournament Contest Champion

Andrew Shimmin

2008 contest

Links
The stuff I keep track of
2008 Conference Standings FINAL
National League
Rank Team W L PCT Division
1 Chicago Cubs 97 64 .602 C1
2 Philadelphia 92 70 .568 E1
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 84 78 .519 W1
4 Milwaukee 90 72 .556 C2
5 New York Mets 89 73 .549 E2
6 Houston 86 75 .534 C3
7 St. Louis 86 76 .531 C4
8 Florida 84 77 .522 E3
9 Arizona 82 80 .506 W2
10T Colorado 74 88 .457 W3
10T Cincinnati 74 88 .457 C5
12T Atlanta 72 90 .444 E4
12T San Francisco 72 90 .444 W4
14 Pittsburgh 67 95 .414 C6
15 San Diego 63 99 .389 W5
16 Washington 59 102 .366 E5
American League
Rank Team W L PCT Division
1 Los Angeles Angels 100 62 .617 W1
2 Tampa Bay 97 65 .599 E1
3 Chicago White Sox 89 74 .546 C1
4 Boston 95 67 .586 E2
5 New York Yankees 89 73 .549 E3
6 Minnesota 88 75 .540 C2
7 Toronto 86 76 .531 E4
8 Cleveland 81 81 .500 C3
9 Texas 79 83 .488 W2
10 Oakland 75 86 .466 W3
11 Kansas City 75 87 .463 C4
12 Detroit 74 88 .457 C5
13 Baltimore 68 93 .422 E5
14 Seattle 61 101 .377 W4
Random Game Callbacks

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So where is that book?

Personal favorites that I wrote
The Metro Area Battles

New York
WLGB
Yankees8973
Mets8973

Baltimore/DC
WLGB
X - Orioles6893
Nationals591029

Chicago
WLGB
X - Cubs9764
White Sox89749

LA/Orange County
WLGB
X - Angels10062
Dodgers847816

SF/Oakland
WLGB
X - Athletics7685
Giants72904.5

X - Clinched

So long and thanks for playing this year

1. Washington (8/31)
2. Seattle (9/1)
3. Pittsburgh (9/6) *
3. San Diego (9/6) *
5. Baltimore (9/8)
6. Oakland (9/8)
7. Atlanta (9/9)
8. Kansas City (9/9)
9. Cincinnati (9/10)
10. Texas (9/13)
11. Detroit (9/15)
12. San Francisco (9/17)
13. Colorado (9/18)
14. Cleveland (9/19)
15. Toronto (9/21)
16. New York Yankees (9/23)
17. St. Louis (9/23)
18. Florida (9/23)
19. Arizona (9/25)
20. Houston (9/26)
21. New York Mets (9/28)
22. Minnesota (9/30)
23. Chicago Cubs (10/4)
24. Milwaukee (10/5)
25. Chicago White Sox (10/6)
26. Los Angeles Angels (10/6)

* - Teams eliminated at same time

The last batter to reach on catcher's interference was ...

Seth McClung of Milwaukee by Koyie Hill of the Cubs on September 26, 2008.

FAQs
Cycle alerts

Yellow alert - Player needs triple for cycle
Orange alert - Player needs double for cycle
Red alert - Player need single for cycle

If a player needs a home run for the cycle, the level of the alert varies depending upon the determination of the Cycle Detection Warning System, which is headquartered in Thief River Falls, Minnesota.

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WBC previews (almost 99% unoriginal material)
2006-02-28 09:43
by Bob Timmermann

I was debating writing detailed previews of the competitors in the WBC. Then I realized that: 1) I didn't have the time, 2) I didn't have the inclination, 3) I really don't think they would be all that well-informed. But I'll make some half-assed guesses at the end on how the tournament will turn out.

The San Jose Mercury News is running capsules of the pools.

  • Pool A China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.
  • Pool B Canada, Mexico, South Africa, and the United States.
  • Pool C Cuba, The Netherlands, Panama, Puerto Rico.
  • Pool D Australia, Dominican Republic, Italy, Venezuela.

From the way I see it, Japan should cruise through Pool A with a 3-0 record. China will go 0-3. So the team that advances will be the winner of the Korea-Taiwan game. Korea's players have the edge in MLB experience so I think they will move on.

In Pool B, the United States should go 3-0 and will likely have a mercy rule win over South Africa, who will be lucky to play a full 9 innings in any game. So then you have Mexico and Canada. Since Mexico has more competent pitchers, I give them the edge.

Pool C is the hardest group to tab. Cuba is the only nation with experience in playing high stakes international tournaments. And the Cubans are in the middle of their regular season. However, the team is young (I'm going by reports, the Cuban rosters don't have a lot of info). When one of the top players in the league is 16 years old (Dayan Viciedo who isn't expected to play), that may be a sign that the experience may not be there. But there is talent.

Panama is a mess after manager Roberto Kelly quit. From my reading of Pananamian websites, there isn't a lot of hope for that team.

Then there is the Netherlands. Which has Andruw Jones. He's one of the few MLB players that's definitely going to suit up for the Dutch. After that it gets sketchy. Mark Mulder? Kirk Saarloos? I doubt it.

Finally, Puerto Rico which has some offense in Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Ivan Rodriguez, and Bernie Williams, but not much pitching after Javier Vazquez.

It's pretty much a coin toss, but I see Puerto Rico and Cuba making it out of this pool by default.

Pool D is the "Group of Death". The Dominican Republic team is loaded with hitters: Pujols, Ortiz, Soriano, Guerrero, and possibly Ramirez. That's a lot of home runs waiting to be hit. But the pitching staff without Pedro Martinez, looks good, but not great. And relying on a rehabbing Bartolo Colon wouldn't comfort me.

Then there is Venezuela. Which can trot out an All-Star pitching staff: Johan Santana, Freddy Garcia, Carlos Zambrano, Gustavo Chacin, Kelvim Escobar, Francisco Rodriguez. If those guys are in shape (and news stories indicate that the Venezuelans are really geared up for the tournament), they will be tough to hit.

Also ran: Italy, Australia.

The tournament kicks off at 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT with a game between Korea and Taiwan (Chinese Taipei) in Tokyo. The Dominican Republic will play Venezuela on March 7 in Orlando.

The next round would have the top two teams in A and B playing in Anaheim and the top two in C and D playing in San Juan. They would play three game round robins.

So one group should have Japan, Korea, United States and Mexico and the other will have Cuba, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Venezuela.

The top two in each pool move on to the semis. So look for the U.S. and Japan moving on from Anaheim with the Dominican Republic and Venezuela moving on from San Juan.
The U.S would then play Japan in one semi and the Dominican Republic would play Venezuela in the other.

I think the U.S. will edge Japan. I think Venezuela will beat the Dominican Republic in their third meeting of the tournament.

This will set up a U.S. vs. Venezuela final. George Bush sharing a bag of peanuts with Hugo Chavez! I can't wait. Who will win? Flip a coin. Then choose the other team.

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Comments
2006-02-28 12:18:36
1.   joejoejoe
Don't mismatches between baseball teams still yield a winner of the lesser team about 15% of the time at least? I know MLB teams lose split squad games to colleges on a regular basis in spring training.

I wouldn't count on these games playing anything close to form. The quality of pitching will likely be little better than a spring training game. The crapshoot factor of an out of season tournament cannot be ignored.

2006-02-28 12:20:36
2.   Bob Timmermann
But teams like China, South Africa, and Australia are probably barely above A level ball.

The Chinese team lost to the Yomiuri Giants 17-0 yesterday. The Taiwanese team lost to the Chiba Lotte Marines in an exhibition and most of the good player on Lotte are playing for the Japanese national team.

2006-02-28 17:21:04
3.   joejoejoe
Bob Timmerman - I think your assessments are accurate, I just think that baseball has a higher degree of uncertainty in short competitions than other sports.

Add in the uncertainty of early spring pitching and I can't call it a huge shock if any team loses early.

2006-02-28 17:25:42
4.   Bob Timmermann
If the U.S. loses to South Africa, that would be huge.
2006-02-28 18:25:15
5.   grandcosmo
I think the odds of single game upsets are dramatically decreased by the use of pitch counts. Can you envision 3 or 4 South African pitchers combining to shut down the US?
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