Baseball Toaster: The Griddle : Is a walk as good as a hit?

Rank	Team	W	L	PCT	Division
1	Chicago Cubs	69	46	.6	C1
2	Philadelphia	62	51	.549	E1
3	Arizona	59	55	.518	W1
4	Milwaukee	64	51	.557	C2
5	St. Louis	64	52	.552	C3
6	Florida	60	54	.526	E2
7	New York Mets	59	54	.522	E3
8	Los Angeles Dodgers	56	57	.496	W2
9	Houston	54	59	.478	C4
10T	Pittsburgh	52	62	.456	C5
10T	Atlanta	52	62	.456	E4
12T	Colorado	52	63	.452	W3
12T	Cincinnati	52	63	.452	C6
14	San Francisco	48	65	.425	W4
15	San Diego	44	70	.386	W5
16	Washington	42	71	.372	E5

American League

Rank	Team	W	L	PCT	Division
1	Los Angeles Angels	71	43	.623	W1
2	Tampa Bay	68	45	.602	E1
3	Chicago White Sox	63	49	.563	C1
4	Boston	66	49	.574	E2
5	Minnesota	63	51	.553	C2
6	New York Yankees	62	52	.544	E3
7	Texas	60	55	.522	W2
8	Toronto	58	56	.509	E4
9	Detroit	55	58	.487	C3
10	Baltimore	54	59	.478	E5
11	Oakland	53	60	.469	W3
12	Kansas City	53	62	.461	C4
13	Cleveland	49	64	.434	C5
14	Seattle	44	70	.386	W4

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Is a walk as good as a hit?

2006-04-29 23:36

by Bob Timmermann

Alan Schwarz in the New York Times writes about David Neft's "on base advantage", a measurement where a walk is valued by subtracting a player's slugging percentage from 1.

However jarring to those riding the modern walk bandwagon, Neft's refinement makes perfect sense. From the pitcher's standpoint, a batter expected to slug 1.000, on average, should always be walked because his average hit is more damaging than a walk.

Meanwhile, walking a player with a .000 slugging percentage is grounds for an early shower, because he is no threat in the first place. The higher the slugging percentage, the less costly the walk.

Walking a player with a .000 slugging percentage is sometimes referred to by those of us on the West Coast as "The Grabowski Principle." You can get something of an explanation of it here.

Comments

2006-04-29 23:49:59

1. Ken Arneson

First impression: I like it.

2006-04-30 07:23:01

2. D4P

Hmmm...so, should the value of single be downweighted because it wasn't a double, triple or HR? Aren't singles less valuable to players who hit a lot of extra-base hits than to players who hit few extra-base hits? Where does this line of thinking stop?

2006-04-30 11:57:09

3. regfairfield

I agree with D4P. While it is worse to walk a pitcher than a hitter, no hitter has ever come close to averaging one base an at bat, meaning that the walk puts them in a better position to score.

The best way to do this is look at runs scored on average when a player like Pujols walks or doesn't walk. I'm guessing the walk category will win out.

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