Washington and Seattle down to just the wild card or nothing
2008-08-27 21:00
by Bob Timmermann
Both Seattle and Washington were eliminated from winning their respective divisions today.
For the Mariners, it's fairly straightforward math as Seattle has 83 losses and the Angels have 80 wins. Once losses + wins = 163, you're done. Wild card leader Boston has just 77 wins, so the M's could sneak in there.
For the Nats, they were eliminated from the division (I believe) because third place Florida won. I've gone through several scenarios and it looks like there is no way for one of the top 3 teams in the NL East to NOT win more than 77 games this year.
The Nats have an extremely faint pulse for the wild card according to my math, which is too long and messy to show.
I'm pretty sure Washington still has a chance at the division. A potential scenario:
- Washington wins out. 77 wins.
- The Mets lose every game but one of their three remaining against Philly and two of their six against Florida. 77 wins.
- The Phillies lose every game but two of their three remaining against the Mets and two of their six against Florida. 77 wins.
- The Marlins lose every game but eight of their twelve against the Mets and Phillies. 76 wins.
- The Braves lose at least 3 of 6 to Colorado and Houston. No more than 77 wins.
- Washington wins the playoff.
The best Washington can do in the wild card is a three-way tie with the Brewers and the Mets/Phillies loser.
- Washington wins out. 77 wins.
- The Mets lose every game but one of their three remaining against Philly and two of their six against Florida. 77 wins.
- The Phillies lose every game but two of their three remaining against the Mets and two of their six against Florida. 77 wins.
- The Marlins lose every game but eight of their twelve against the Mets and Phillies. 76 wins.
- The Braves lose at least 3 of 6 to Colorado and Houston. No more than 77 wins.
- Washington wins the playoff.
The best Washington can do in the wild card is a three-way tie with the Brewers and the Mets/Phillies loser.
Thanks for figuring out the "blowing up the Death Star" scenario.
So Washington can only be eliminated today if they lose.
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