Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Email me at btimmermann@gmail.com
Select a date:
Live from Chase Field! On ESPN Deportes at 11 pm PT and ESPN at midnight PT.
This game is essentially a must win game for both teams despite Canada being 2-0 and Mexico being 1-1. The way the tiebreakers work out, Canada will advance to the second round with a win or a loss where they give up just one or two runs. Mexico advances with a win or a loss paired with an unlikely loss by the US to South Africa on Friday by seven or more runs. If Mexico beats Canada and scores three or more runs, Mexico and the US advance. Another twist is that if the game ends in a tie after 14 innings, Canada moves on to the second round in Anaheim and Mexico would only be able to advance if the U.S. lost to South Africa.
Jeff Francis will start for Canada and Esteban Loaiza will be on the mound for Mexico. Not that the two countries have a big rivalry, but this is the biggest baseball games these two nations have ever played against each other.
Canada has shown it can hit, scoring 19 runs in its first two games. Mexico was shut out by the U.S., but managed 10 runs against South Africa.
If anyone is thinking that somehow Canada will try to play for 1-0 or 2-1 win, I don't think it's likely. It's just too hard to do in baseball. You can't run out the clock.
The FIFA World Cup has had some shady dealings with teams manipulating final scores to gain advantages. One of the ones I remember was at the 1982 World Cup in Spain.
Group 2 had West Germany, Austria, Algeria, and Chile in it. West Germany opened up against Algeria and lost in a stunning 2-1 upset. Austria beat Chile and Austria in its next two matches while West Germany bounced back to rout Chile 4-1 in its next match.
The last matches were set for June 24 and June 25. Algeria played Chile on the 24th and won 3-2. That left the Algerians were four points, but had a goal difference of zero. Austria and West Germany played on the 25th and Austria came in to the match with four points and +3 in goals. West Germany had two points and were +2. So if West Germany were able to beat Austria in a low-scoring match, the two neighbors would be through to the second round and Algeria would be out.
And what was the final result? West Germany 1, Austria 0. Germany scored 10 minutes in to the games and for the next 80 minutes the two sides wandered around the field with a general lack of enthusiasm. The Algerians were perturbed that Austria didn't even appear to try. The press dubbed the game Anschluss 1982. Germany would go on to lose to Italy in the final.
I had too dissolute a youth to actually understand this, I'm afraid.
(Kidding, thanks for legging this out.)
The assumption (explicit in some news stories today) seems to be that the USA would lose out to Canada based on the result of the head-to-head game. But head-to-head is the first tiebreaker; when we apply RA/9 we are already at the second tiebreaker (which we reached because, assuming the USA defeats South Africa, the first tiebreaker does not help decide which two of the three teams with 2-1 records should advance). Having reached the second tiebreaker, and finding two teams (USA and Canada) still tied, why would we go back to the first tiebreaker? It seems to me we should go on to the third tiebreaker (ERA) and if necessary the fourth (BA).
I admit this is somewhat academic, since moving on to the remaining tiebreakers would be unlikely to help the USA. If one or both of Mexico's runs were unearned, Canada would win the ERA tiebreaker. Otherwise that tiebreaker would also be tied, and the final tiebreaker (well, drawing lots is the final tiebreaker, so I should say the fourth tiebreaker) would apply. Since a mere three hits would likely be enough for Canada to best the USA's paltry .231 BA, only a Mexico two-hitter would help the USA. But the assumption that Canada's head-to-head victory over the USA would come into play once the second tiebreaker has been reached still seems wrong to me.
Great post by the way, Bob. I'm going to look up the word Anschluss unless someone here can help me out with the translation.
should I know who Jeff Francis is? seems to me Mexico needs to get the lead early or keep it close to get into the canadian middle relief.
That then went on to swallow parts of Czechoslovia and then to full-boat invade Poland.
Great times.
I think you are right unless it goes back to the first tie breaker of head to head which might be the case.
With a three way tie, you have the second tie breaker sending Mexico to Anaheim and then you technically go back to a two team tie with USA/Canada and then you revert back to first tie breaker of head to head.
Turnstiles -- that Humbugardy performance was impressive indeed (although it somehow doesn't feel right to talk about it on Bob's blog . . .)
http://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/2006/
to see if you can find a cogent explanation. ;)
If Mexico gives up 5 runs or less, USA finishes 2nd in the group. if Mexico give up six or more to Canada and still wins, USA is the group winner.
If Canada comes back to win, USA is second in the group and moving on.
(tried to catch this before it posted and fix the typo - sorry if it turns out to be a double)
--David W.
If we lose to the R.S.A tomorrow I will agree with you though.
http://tinyurl.com/k9egd
I was a bit surprised to see that the final games were staggered since there is a possibility of gaming the system.
You would have México surrendering 2 runs in 16 innings. The USA would have given up 8 runs in 18 innings. Canada would have given 14 runs in 16 innings.
México wins the group and the US would be #2.
Or I understand the rules better.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.