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The Toaster's Very Fearful Predictions for 2006
2006-03-31 14:30
by Bob Timmermann

With a healthy amount of trepidation, the staff of the Toaster presents its predictions for the 2006 season. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish with the wild card being in bold. (Not that I think the wild card is more important, it just shows up better.)

Note: Will Carroll's predictions are at Baseball Prospectus and can be found here.

AL East, aka Center of Known Universe Division

Derek Smart: Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Erik Siegrist: Boston, Yankees, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Jon Weisman: Boston, Yankees, Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay
Ken Arneson: Yankees, Toronto, Boston, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Mike Carminati: Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Bob Timmermann: Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Alex Belth: Yankees, Toronto, Boston, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Cliff Corcoran: Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Scott Long: Yankees, Boston, Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay.
Mark Donohue: Yankees, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay

AL Central, aka Hey, Didn't One of These Teams Win the World Series Last Year Division?

Smart: White Sox, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Siegrist: Cleveland, Minnesota, White Sox, Detroit, Kansas City
Weisman: Cleveland, White Sox, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Arneson: Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, White Sox, Kansas City
Carminati: Cleveland, White Sox, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Timmermann: Cleveland, White Sox, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Belth: White Sox, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Corcoran: Cleveland, White Sox, Detroit, Minnesota, Kansas City
Long: Cleveland, White Sox, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City
Donohue: White Sox, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City

AL West, aka The Great Debate Division

Smart: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle
Siegrist: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle
Weisman: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle
Arneson: Angels, Oakland, Texas, Seattle
Carminati: Oakland, Texas, Angels, Seattle
Timmermann: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle
Belth: Angels, Oakland, Texas, Seattle
Corcoran: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle
Long: Angels, Oakland, Texas, Seattle
Donohue: Oakland, Angels, Texas, Seattle

NL East, aka The Bobby Cox Invitational Division

Smart: Atlanta, Mets, Philadelphia, Washington, Florida
Siegrist: Mets, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Florida, Washington
Weisman: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Mets, Florida, Washington
Arneson: Atlanta, Mets, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Carminati: Atlanta, Mets, Philadelphia, Washington, Florida
Timmermann: Atlanta, Mets, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Belth: Mets, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Washington
Corcoran: Atlanta, Mets, Philadelphia, Washington, Florida
Long: Mets, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington, Florida
Donohue: Mets, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington, Florida

NL Central, aka The Tony La Russa Invitational Division

Smart: St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, Cubs, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Siegrist: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cubs, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh
Weisman: Houston, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Arneson: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Houston, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Carminati: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Houston, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Timmermann: St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cubs, Cincinnati
Belth: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cubs, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Corcoran: Houston, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Long: St. Louis, Houston, Cubs, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Donohue: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

NL West, aka Hey, Somebody Has To Win Division

Smart: Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado
Siegrist: Dodgers, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, Colorado
Weisman: Dodgers, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, Colorado
Arneson: Dodgers, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco, Colorado
Carminati: Dodgers, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Colorado
Timmermann: San Diego, Dodgers, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado
Belth: San Diego, Dodgers, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado
Corcoran: Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado
Long: San Diego, Dodgers, San Francisco, Colorado, Arizona
Donohue: Dodgers, San Francisco, San Diego, Colorado, Arizona

AL champion, the Varsity

Smart: Oakland
Siegrist: Oakland
Weisman: Oakland
Arneson: Angels
Carminati: Oakland
Timmermann: Cleveland
Belth: White Sox
Corcoran: Oakland
Long: Yankees
Donohue: Oakland

NL champion, the JV squad

Smart: St. Louis
Siegrist: Mets
Weisman: Atlanta
Arneson: St. Louis
Carminati: Atlanta
Timmermann: St. Louis
Belth: St. Louis
Corcoran: Houston
Long: St. Louis
Donohue: Mets

World Series Champion, the best craps shooting team

Smart: Oakland
Siegrist: Oakland
Weisman: Atlanta
Arneson: St. Louis
Carminati: Oakland
Timmermann: Cleveland
Belth: White Sox
Corcoran: Oakland
Long: Yankees
Donohue: Oakland

One thing is clear from these picks: we don't expect good things from the Royals and Mariners.

Consensus picks:

AL East: Yankees (7), Boston (3)
AL Central: Cleveland (6), White Sox (3), Detroit (1)
AL West: Oakland (7), Angels (3)
AL Wild card: Chicago (5), Oakland (2), Cleveland (1), Yankees (1), Boston (1)
NL East: Atlanta (5), Mets (4), Philadelphia (1)
NL Central: St. Louis (8), Houston (2)
NL West: Los Angeles (7), San Diego (3)
NL Wild Card: Mets (4), Atlanta (3), Philadelphia (2), Milwaukee (1)
AL Champs: Oakland (6), Angels (1), White Sox (1), Cleveland (1), Yankees (1)
NL Champs: St. Louis (5), Atlanta (2), New York (2), Houston (1)
WS Champs: Oakland (5), Atlanta (1), St. Louis (1), Cleveland (1), White Sox (1), Yankees (1)

Comments
2006-03-31 10:19:28
1.   Linkmeister
And the margin of error in this poll was?
2006-03-31 10:23:21
2.   Ken Arneson
I guess this means I have to publish my explanations myself. Very well.
2006-03-31 10:27:12
3.   Marty
Alright Boib, what's with you picking the Padres first?

No one likes the Brewers to win the Central?

2006-03-31 10:27:19
4.   Bob Timmermann
Not everyone sent explanations. And some people didn't want to write them.

People like me.

2006-03-31 10:27:42
5.   Marty
Sorry Boib, I meant Bob :)
2006-03-31 10:29:31
6.   Bob Timmermann
My dart landed on San Diego.

I think the 2006 Brewers are going to be a lot like the 2005 Royals.

2006-03-31 10:40:52
7.   jmoney
I'm guessing Ken picked the Angels every step of the way so as to avoid jinxing the A's. Good. All these pre-season world series predictions are making me nervous.
2006-03-31 10:42:05
8.   Bob Timmermann
Ken says he doesn't make predictions. He says he just knows what will happen.
2006-03-31 11:57:11
9.   das411
Jon seems to have a lot of faith in Leo Mazzone, hmm...

And Bob, by my count there are 16 different teams predicted to make the playoffs in this post. Does a certain Unnamed Prominent National Columnist need to hear about this perhaps?

2006-03-31 13:25:55
10.   Mark T.R. Donohue
Sorry about no predictions in the post for me. I'm subject to vicious Toaster hazing procedures until the Rockies win a playoff series...so, sometime around 2015 I ought to be seen prognosticating in the main body of text. Until then:

AL East
Yankees, Red Sox(*), Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays

AL Central
White Sox, Indians, Twins, Tigers, Royals

AL West
A's, Angels, Rangers, Mariners

NL East
Mets, Braves(*), Phillies, Nationals, Marlins

NL Central
Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Reds, Pirates

NL West
Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks

AL Champs: A's
NL Champs: Mets

WS: A's

2006-03-31 13:41:08
11.   Bob Timmermann
Mark,
I incorporated your selections in above and updated the consensus totals as well.
2006-03-31 13:44:53
12.   graciebarn
So much for senior versus junior circuit monikers...
2006-03-31 13:49:31
13.   ScoobyGoo
Sigh, so many Oakland picks, I guess it's time to cross them off my list..has there ever been a team that gets picked that often that actually lives up to their predictions?
2006-03-31 13:55:49
14.   Bob Timmermann
I would never pick the trendy team.

I picked the other trendy team.

Which wasn't trendy.
I do think Oakland will win their division. I don't see the Angels doing much on offense this year.

2006-03-31 18:54:31
15.   scareduck
I would like to ask Ken Arneson why he picked the Angels to win the division. Habit?
2006-03-31 21:18:02
16.   Bob Timmermann
15

Ken answers that question in Catfish Stew.

2006-04-01 07:53:59
17.   spycake
5 out of 10 of you pick Oakland to win it all. Billy Beane's getting that playoff monkey off his back in a really big way, huh?
2006-04-01 19:32:39
18.   mikeplugh
First, Siegrist and Arneson are on crack with their White Sox picks. 3rd and 4th in that division. I'll give anyone fair respect for picking Cleveland first and Chicago second, because that's what Spring Training guesses are all about, but the defending world champions added Jim Thome who is absolutely nuclear "on fire" and looks to be rebounding from a fluky season of injuries.

Second, Weisman and Long have Baltimore finishing 3rd in the AL East. It's not as out there as the White Sox predictions, but it's something I have a hard time seeing. Their pitching will have to overachieve all year and Cabrera will have to emerge as a #1 starter for them to stay out of 4th. The question marks about their offense will have to all be realized in their favor in addition to the pitching in order for them to stay out of the basement. Their starting CF has a sub-.300 OBP.

The rest looks great, in my opinion. My opinion ain't worth a hill of beans, but I enjoyed reading your predictions.

2006-04-03 02:47:07
19.   Yu-Hsing Chen
NL east, I would think that chances are Mets goes bust, Philes and Braves go into a deep run with either being possible to win and the other taking the wild card, Braves more likely to win though.

AL east, AL east is really a question of "who's pitcher lands on the DL more" whoever between Boston and NYY can keep their old and/or broken pitchers in one piece longer than the other will win.. if both team's pitcher gets in deep trouble than Jays will win.
2006-04-03 11:14:39
20.   Ken Arneson
18 I hereby deny ingesting illegal chemicals of any sort.

However, I do admit that I am a silly, silly man.

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.