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When writing up my daily previews of action, I've been trying to decide which teams are contenders for a playoff spot or worthy of mention.
At first, I thought it would just be teams were either in first or second place in a division or teams within five games of the wild card and above .500.
However, the National League has made it tough this year.
So, I'm thinking of using this definition.
Contenders are:
1) Teams in first place
2) Teams in second place until they are mathematically eliminated
3) Teams with a greater than 10% chance of making the playoffs according to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report.
So in the AL, there are just seven contenders:
New York, Detroit, and Oakland (qualifying under clause 1); Boston, Minnesota, and Los Angeles (qualifying under clause 2); and Chicago (clause 3).
In the NL, there are just seven contenders:
New York, St. Louis, and Los Angeles (qualifying under clause 1); Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and San Diego (clause 2); and San Francisco (clause 3).
If there are people who genuinely believe that Florida or Houston have a shot at the playoffs, I will listen to their cases, but you would have to be pretty persuasive.
Clause #2 can yield teams that are really no longer contenders, but I think it is a good definition nonetheless.
Their chances of making the playoffs are sitting at 4.2% now.
Finally, on the team itself. The word of the year for the Marlins has been young pitching. Josh Johnson leads the world with a 2.90 ERA. Scott Olsen is striking out over 8 per 9 innings. Nolasco and Sanchez have both been effective since their callups. And of course there's Dontrelle Willis, in a down year but he has that playoff push experience.
The lineup, other than Miguel Cabrera with is 1.018 OPS, is best described as promising, but inconsistent. It seems that when Josh Willlingham is hot, Hanley Ramirez is cold. Right now its Mike Jacobs who is redhot for the Fish. The key to a playoff push here, is that all of the young hitters manage to click together, and can easily be a lineup that puts up 5 or 6 runs/game.
The defense leaves a bit to be desired, at least measured by Zone Rating. But ever since I saw Joe Girardi get thrown out of a split squad spring training game, I've been convinced that he has the fire to lead a team to victory.
Don't count out the kids!
And Joe Girardi could very well be fired at the end of the year anyway!
I know they are fewer than that from the wild card, but they have to leap a couple of teams.
Are the Boston Red Sox playoff contenders?
Once that question is "answered", then I can have a definition.
(ex: 2005 Indians with 93 wins vs Padres with 82 = 11 game split)
I don't think comparing between leagues is a good way to go about this.
In 1973, the Dodgers won 95 games and finished second while the Mets won 82 and went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series.
& run if it moves (sorry i got a Simpson flashback Bob)
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