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4 down, 18 to go
2006-09-10 12:39
by Bob Timmermann

The Chicago Cubs became the first National League team and fourth overall to be eliminated from playoff contention today. The Cubs lost in Atlanta 2-1, handing them their 87th loss of the season.

That means the most wins the Cubs can have is 75. NL Central leader St. Louis has 75 wins and second place Houston has 70 wins and with seven games left between the two teams, one of them will have to finish with at least 76 wins.

The Pirates could be the next team to walk the plank if Houston or St. Louis win today.

The Cubs can't win the wild card because they couldn't surpass both Houston and St. Louis. If Houston sweeps its last seven games from the Cardinals, but beats no one else, they would have 77 wins. This would mean then that the Astros would have to have lost four games to the Phillies who would then have at least 76 wins.

The RIOT number site listed the Cubs as needing 20 wins with 20 games left coming into today's game to avoid elimination.

2006-09-10 15:04:14
1.   Gagne55
What about the wild card?
2006-09-10 15:22:51
2.   Bob Timmermann
The Cubs can't finish ahead of both LA and San Diego.
2006-09-10 16:59:38
3.   Gagne55
2 They would only need to finish ahead of one of them, cause the other wins the west. Perhaps they can't finish ahead of both San Deigo and Cincinatti?
2006-09-10 17:12:10
4.   Bob Timmermann
The Cubs top out at 76 wins. The Dodgers have 76 wins. If the Dodgers lost all their remaining games, the Padres would have at least 77 wins.

Also if the Cardinals were to lose every remaining game, the Giants would have to win three games, bringing them to 75. Then there is the problem with the Padres again. The Giants play them tonight, so for the Padres to get only 77 wins, they would have to lose tonight. That raises San Francisco to 76 wins. Then for the Cardinals to keep losing, they would have to lose three to the Giants also.

2006-09-10 17:14:13
5.   Bob Timmermann
Whoops counted the Cardinals twice in the last sentence of 4. Take the last sentence and eliminate "Cardinals" and replace it with "Dodgers".

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