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Living on the edge
2006-09-21 09:47
by Bob Timmermann

With the days in the regular season running short, two playoff spots wrapped up and the American League turning into a quadripartite battle for the best record among the Yankees, Tigers, Athletics, and Twins, teams are going to start dropping out of playoff contention very quickly.

Since I'll be out tonight, you may miss some teams bite the dust, but here's the forecast:

Boston and Toronto - If the Twins beat Boston tonight, and the Twins are starting Johan Santana, both the Red Sox and Blue Jays are through. If the Red Sox, both teams live for another day. But they both won't live for ever as the two teams play each other over the weekend.

Colorado - If the Rockies lose to Atlanta tonight and the Dodgers and Padres and Giants and Marlins (late addition) all win, the Rockies are eliminated. It's complicated, but trust me. The fifth to first leap in the final two weeks of the season is not one that is easily made.

Los Angeles of Anaheim - They won't be eliminated today at all, but if Oakland wins today, they could clinch the AL West with two wins at home over the weekend against the Halos.

2006-09-21 10:32:12
1.   Sam DC
"Trust me" he says.

"Watch Out!" scream Brewer fans across the land.

2006-09-21 10:40:20
2.   Bob Timmermann
OK, if the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants win tonight they will have, respectively, 80, 80, and 76 wins. If the Rockies lose tonight, they will max out at 80.

So let's say the Padres then would lose their final 10 games after tonight to finish 80-82. OK, not a problem.

Then the Dodgers would have to go 0-9 to go 80-82. Again, not a problem.

If the Giants win, they would have 76 wins.

BUT ... if the Padres go 0-10 after today, they would have to lose four games to Arizona.

And if the Dodgers went 0-9, they would have to lost three to Arizona and three to San Francisco.

So now San Francisco has at least 79 wins. And Arizona has 79 wins. And Arizona and San Francisco play each other three times. So... one of them would have at least 81 wins.

But then again, what about a multi-team tie for the wild card at 80 wins ... Wait, that could happen I think... No, it won't, but I have to add the Marlins to the teams that must win tonight for Colorado to be eliminated. The Marlins are at 75 wins and the Phillies at 79. Those two teams play each other six times. If the Marlins get to 76 and the Philies are at 79, then one of them will finish with at least 81 wins.


2006-09-21 11:09:14
3.   xaphor
Bob then goes on to prove that black is white and gets himself killed on the next zebra crossing.
2006-09-21 11:34:15
4.   Bob Timmermann
It's a sign of desperation that a team in fifth place needs a team in third place in a different division to lose a game so it can stay alive in the playoffs.
2006-09-21 12:48:29
5.   Linkmeister

I'll take the Entente Cordiale for $600, Alex.

2006-09-21 13:02:49
6.   Bob Timmermann
You know, I had used quadripartite earlier, but I just spelled it wrong this time.
2006-09-21 13:41:42
7.   Linkmeister
Well, after the Royal Guardsmen reference I was thinking of WW I. Wasn't there a Tripartite Pact?

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