Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal in his Numbers Guy column is still bemoaning why Willie Randolph didn't order Cliff Floyd to bunt in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the NLCS.
But the article's concludes that there may be no definite answer.
Still, it's unlikely that any team managers are crunching such numbers in the dugout. These analyses entail "a level of complexity that works well in theory but is hard to execute in game conditions," Mr. Woolner told me. Armchair managers, however, can track game situations using a win-expectancy calculator at walkoffbalk.com, or by using Mr. Fox's free software application, Big League Pocket Manager.
In making strategic decisions such as whether to bunt, "There's clearly wrong, clearly right, or somewhere in between," said "The Book" co-author Mr. Lichtman, a former advisor for the Cardinals. "If it's somewhere in between, I always say, flip a coin."
Let's say he bunts and moves the runners over. Then you have 2nd and 3rd with one out. Then let's assume the next three batters have the same results as there is no other fair way to guess what they would've done. Reyes flies out to center for the 2nd out. Perhaps the runner tags and scores from third and makes it 3-2. LoDuca walks and then Beltran strikes out to end the game. Mets lose either 3-1 or 3-2. So many woulda coulda shouldas. Why not double steal, why not hit and run, why not use one of your life lines and ask Jim Tracy what he would do in that situation. vr, Xei
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