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Now they realize it?
2007-01-25 07:39
by Bob Timmermann

After the recent of exodus of Daisuke Matsuzaka for Boston, the owners in Japanese Baseball (NPB), have realized that many of their best players are leaving. It only took about 10 years for them to figure this out.

Jim Allen of the Daily Yomiuri along with Chiba manager Bobby Valentine thinks that more minor leagues will help. Some people in NPB think that they need better stadiums, ones that are more amenable to families. And everyone realizes that TV coverage (which is negotiated by each team individually) needs to be centralized.

One team executive stated that NPB's total revenue was the same in 2006 as it was in 1996. And Japan has not had zero inflation.

2007-01-25 07:48:58
1.   Penarol1916
They haven't, it's been pretty close to zero for the last 10 years, especially when you throw in the deflation that occured during a couple of these years.
2007-01-25 08:19:33
2.   Ali Nagib
Let the macroeconomic battle begin!
2007-01-25 08:23:03
3.   joejoejoe
I like the posting system.

I think MLB should adopt it internally so that a team could just sell a player to the highest bidder. Wouldn't just about everybody in MLB have been better served by the Kansas City Royals posting Carlos Beltran instead of trading him for Astros for prospects? KC would have gotten tens of millions of dollars to spend on other players and Beltran would have gone to a major market club like the Mets where he ended up eventually.

Mark Teahen and John Buck have done well for the Royals but most players for prospects deals are a crapshoot. Instead of teams trying to find a 'match' of talent why not just post the player for $$$ and use the $$$ to buy the exact talent you need?

Trading talent is like the barter system. It's just easier to pay cash. There will always teams that don't spend the cash on new talent but there there are many salary dumps and bad trades in the existing system.

2007-01-25 08:23:32
4.   Penarol1916
I wouldn't think that there needs to be a battle, I'm sure that it would be pretty easy for someone with the right databases to look up and give the right figure, I was just curious is all.
2007-01-25 08:47:36
5.   Bob Timmermann
So $1 billion in 1996 in Japan is worth $1 billion now?
2007-01-25 09:03:44
6.   Penarol1916
Honestly, I have no clue, but I do remember for a time, $1BN in Japan was actually in 1999 was actually worth more than $1BN in Japan in 1998 and the equivalent of the fed funds rate was 0 for a long time, I think that even now it is only 0.25%, but again, I was asking because I don't know what the cumulative inflation rate was for the last 10 years.
2007-01-25 09:10:24
7.   Ali Nagib
4 - Bah! Databases are for the economically weak. Use the power of mental thinking!
2007-01-25 09:42:58
8.   Hythloday
8 - Physical thinking does seem less effective.
2007-01-25 09:43:17
9.   Hythloday
Make that 7
2007-01-25 10:16:54
10.   El Lay Dave
9 Were you physically thinking with your fingers?
2007-01-25 10:33:11
11.   El Lay Dave
Japanese inflation rates

1998 0.6
1999 -0.3
2000 -0.7
2001 -0.7
2002 -0.9
2003 -0.3

From ( this week:
"As Japan emerged last year from seven years of debilitating deflation..."

So I guess 1 Billion yen from 1996 are worth approximately 1 Billion yen now.

2007-01-25 10:39:19
12.   Bob Timmermann
But if NPB's revenues were not increasing anyway doesn't that make the franchises there less valuable anyway? Who wants to buy into something that has no growth?

MLB franchises are all growing their revenue. Even the Royals and Pirates seem to be doing OK. You will find a lot more people enjoying their games or watching those teams on TV than you will see someone wanting to watch the Hiroshima Carp or Orix Buffaloes on TV.

2007-01-25 10:56:42
13.   Penarol1916
12. Staying constant when growth is actually negative is the same thing as growth. You want your revenues to be growing faster than inflation, taking those numbers into account, no nominal growth will get you a real annual growth rate of 0.45%.
It's just like if you are in Bolivia and inflation is growing at 1,000%, 500% revenue growth is actually really bad.
2007-01-25 11:51:21
14.   apsio
Hope this displays correctly...

Year Inflation Rate (CPI)
1997 1.7%
1998 0.6
1999 -0.3
2000 -0.7
2001 -0.7
2002 -0.9
2003 -0.3
2004 -0.3
2005 0.0
2006 0.6

So yes, a billion in 1996 is worth roughly the same in 2006. These are weighted with CPI, rather than industrial measures, as I wouldn't use those for something like baseball franchise values after some thought.

If revenues were static, even in the face of a stagnant economy (less consumer spending and deflation) as well as fleeing star players (i.e. poorer product), then that implies that there was structural growth. Just read post 13, he says it very well.

2007-01-25 11:51:56
15.   apsio
And that 0.0 figure in 2005 is a crock of horse manure in my opinion, but who's going to argue with official statistics.
2007-01-25 12:27:03
16.   Sliced Bread
What are the Japanese owners complaining about? MLB just exported Aaron Guiel.

Who's feeling the talent drain now, Japan?

2007-01-25 14:13:57
17.   Bob Timmermann
The Japanese also have access to Lance Carter, but they have sent Jose Macias back.
2007-01-25 17:45:09
18.   Sandus
Let them play against MLB teams. You could strengthen Japanese baseball by making it similar to the way soccer works. Let the leagues be independent, but allow them to compete with each other.

It would work in the way that the Spanish League is better than the German League, but in Champions League, any team can beat any other. That way you can have larger followings in both markets (people would have favorite teams in both leagues) and fewer players would depart to "prove themselves" in the higher leagues.

I'm not sure if this makes any sense at all, but it makes sense in my head.

2007-01-25 19:42:17
19.   Bob Timmermann
Late last year, I posted a story from where someone suggested that MLB just buy NPB outright. It would probably benefit both sides.

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