Disclosure: Fellow Baseball Toaster loggers Alex Belth and Cliff Corcoran contributed chapters to this book. I did not get a free copy of this book. You may take that information for what it’s worth.

When I picked up my copy of It Ain’t Over 'Til It’s Over the cover says it’s written by “The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts.” So I was ready to sit down and hope that I would read something enlightening. Something that was “expert.” And I think I was satisfied that I did.

“It Ain’t Over …” is a collection of 13 essays (about 14 races as one covers two races in consecutive years) about what the writers deemed to be the “best” pennant races, using a set of mathematical criteria that primarily factored in how many teams were in the race until the end and how close the race stayed. However, the introduction by Steve Goldman does recognize that for most of us, the “best” pennant race is the one we personally remember the best.

The 14 races are: 1967 AL, 1959 NL, 1948 and 1949 AL (which share a chapter), 1908 NL, 1964 NL, 2003 NL Central, 1972 AL East, 1973 NL East, 1974 AL East, 1951 NL, 1984 AL West, 1934 NL, 1944 AL. It’s an interesting selection and it’s unlikely that anyone is familiar with the details of all the races.

For me, some of the chapters detailed races I knew little about such as the 1974 AL East race. Living on the West Coast and being an NL fan growing up, I really didn’t care much who won that division. But it was a three-team race for much of the year between Baltimore, New York, and Boston. The Orioles team rebelled against manager Earl Weaver and started bunting and stealing bases as they felt they didn’t have the right personnel to wait around for Weaver’s beloved three-run homers. And the season turned on a crucial misplay by Lou Piniella that Weaver seemed to predict. On the other hand, I think few people living on the East Coast had the slightest idea of how the 1984 AL West race was coming down to the end with the Angels and Twins falling over each other, while the Royals managed to find three young pitchers to lead them to the playoffs.

Each race is examined two ways. First, there is a narrative about the race and just what the winning team did to prevail. Second, there are broader lessons about baseball that can be drawn from each race.

For example, in 1959, the Milwaukee Braves and San Francisco Giants had superior talent to the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they each had fatal flaws that were exposed as the season wore on. The Braves misused their personnel at hand and also could never find a suitable replacement for Red Schoendienst at second. The Giants simply did not have enough pitching to help them take advantage of a lineup that had Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda, and a young Willie McCovey. The fact that none of those three could play third base didn’t help. Meanwhile, down in Los Angeles, Walter Alston nursed along a team with an average offense and a starting rotation that had a propensity for getting knocked out of games early. But Alston had hard-throwing long relievers to turn to and it was pitchers like Larry Sherry and Roger Craig who got the Dodgers into a playoff with the Braves, which they took in two games.

After the tale of 1959 is over, there are two shorter essays. One on “replacement-level killers” which lists the worst players (in terms of WARP, wins above replacement player) for teams that finished in second. There is also another short essay about the demise of the Milwaukee dynasty.

All the essays, for the most part, avoid being too mean-spirited toward the teams that made the wrong decisions during the pennant race (even Gene Mauch is treated with some sympathy) that cost them a chance at first place. The goal is to see what lessons can be drawn from the past. But there is also a recognition that sometimes there isn’t much that can be done. Some teams get into first place because of series of fortuitous circumstances (such as the 1944 Browns) or scheduling quirks (the 1972 Tigers) or just being the team that didn’t stink as much (the 1973 Mets or 1984 Royals).

I think you can enjoy the book even if you are not a fan of the BPro number crunching. Most of the math-heavy stats are kept in an appendix in the back. There are charts in all the articles, but they aren’t distracting and aren’t hard to understand.

The book’s dust jackets depicts Yadier Molina jumping into Adam Wainwright’s arms at the conclusion of the 2006 NLCS, so you might think that the postseason is covered, but that is not the case. I don’t know if any sort of number crunching can make sense of most postseasons. Especially last year’s. But with just four weeks to go in this season, “It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over” may serve to give you hope if your favorite team is in the race. Or you might realize that your team is doomed. The fun part is trying to figure out why and this book can help you. Or at least keep you entertained during the seemingly long off-season.